导语:美国网络视频平台Brightcove创始人兼CEO杰里米·奥莱尔(Jeremy Allaire)今天撰文,对2011年的网络视频行业的趋势进行了展望。

Connected TVs,

Social Recommendations,

And Standards Wars


以下为文章概要:

网络视频才刚刚起步,而2011年有望引发网络视频领域的又一次变革。本次变革的主角是主流联网电视(Connected TV)、OTT(Over-the-top)普及以及更多可以直接通过网站观看的视频。以下就是网络视频行业明年的5大趋势:

1、联网电视平台大战

过去一年间,手持计算领域展开了一场平台大战。2011年,这类大战还有望拓展到全新的领域,联网电视就是其中之一。这场大战会与过去几年间的智能手机大战极其类似,但是对战各方的实力会更加强大,包括谷歌、苹果和占据主导地位的电视机品牌。事实上,这些平台都基于类似的架构,以相同的方式提供应用和内容。

苹果将推出一款基于iOS的Apple TV电视,并将向Netflix以外的第三方应用开放。开发者在为手机、平板电脑和电视打造应用的过程中,将获得一种通用的模式,还将获得一套全新的 API(应用编程接口),实现手机和平板电脑应用与电视应用间的互动(例如遥控器控制的活动,以及手势控制的应用)。这些平台还将借助一套针对电视体验设计的标准来支持HTML5。

谷歌已经将Google TV整合到罗技机顶盒中,该公司今后还将继续拓展这一战略,并在各种设备中整合Android应用。除此之外,三星和LG等电视厂商也将进一步推广电视应用的SDK(软件开发套件)、应用商店和基于HTML5的电视网络标准,希望借助庞大的用户基础和稳固的地位抵御苹果和谷歌的进攻。

预计到明年底,将有大量的出版商和开发商有意开发电视应用和电视上网体验。

2、OTT电视注册模式崛起,但多数都会失败

Google TV、Apple TV或Boxee等OTT电视服务提供商明年将继续鼓励用户放弃有线电视服务,但这类服务多数都会令用户失望。

2011年,我们会看到首批通过互联网提供丰富电视套餐的服务。预计Netflix将开始针对新近的热门电视节目收费,而苹果也有可能以每月 25美元的低价提供电视注册产品,其中将包含大量的最新主打电视节目。但是多数大型广播公司和内容制作公司不会全力参与,因此无法满足用户需求。缺乏体育赛事的现场直播将成为用户继续使用有线电视服务的一大主因。

与此同时,现有的有线电视套餐也将开始提供更多的网络内容,例如Comcast等一线企业将通过开发设备和应用来提供网络视频产品,进一步模糊这两个领域之间的界限。

必须要等到2012年联网电视普及时,OTT电视注册模式才能够获得足够的用户基础,从而提供最好的节目。

3、Facebook和Twitter将成为比谷歌更大的视频流量来源

Brighcove和TubeMogul联合发布的一项调查显示,网络发布商增速最快的视频流量来源是Facebook和Twitter等社交平台。这种增速还在加快,到2011年底,这类平台的规模和重要性将与谷歌搜索比肩。

逐渐地,网络视频发布商将把Facebook当做与他们自家域名同等重要的网络发布平台来对待。Facebook也将欢迎各大内容发布商将其作为一个媒体发布终端来使用,并将提供丰富的工具和商业模式来吸引内容发布商。

4、视频无处不在——所有企业都是媒体企业

尽管有些老套,但这种趋势的确在加速。2011年,如果你是一家专业机构、组织或企业,无论规模如何,都将制定一套网络视频战略。视频将在通讯、市场、教育和信息等领域扮演中心位置,以至于每个专业网站都会发布某种形式的网络视频。

5、网络传输标准大战升温

谷歌最近宣布,将收购视频技术厂商Widevine,并将进一步激化视频标准大战。苹果提供的HTTP流媒体标准可以同时支持HTML5和 iOS应用,但仅限苹果的设备和软件使用。Adobe提供自家的DRM和HTTP流媒体标准,虽然同样是专有技术,但却可以兼容多个平台。

Widevine也提供一种视频文件的解码和安全措施,并且可以支持几乎各种兼容HTTP流媒体的设备和操作系统。预计与On2的视频解码技术相同,谷歌也将对Widevine的技术进行开源,并将其绑定在Chrome、Chrome OS和Android的基础架构中。

这些因素都将把网络视频引入到更多的设备中,有朝一日,我们甚至无法区分网络与电视的差异。

Online Video In 2011: Connected TVs, Social Recommendations, And Standards Wars

Editor’s note: Online video is going through many changes as people begin to connect their TVs to the Internet and social sharing over Facebook and Twitter influence what people watch as much as search. In this guest post,Jeremy Allaire, founder and CEO of online video platform Brightcove, gives his view of where online video is going next year. Allaire’s last guest post for us was on the standards war in mobile video formats.

Web video is just getting started, and 2011 promises to be yet another year of transformation in the online video landscape. The stage is set for mainstream connected TVs, Over-the-top adoption, and even more videos watched directly streamed from website. Here are the five biggest trends in online video that will play out in significant ways for end-users and publishers alike.

1. Connected TV Platform Wars

The past year saw the definitive emergence of platform wars in the handheld computing landscape. This year will see those wars expand into new territory, the Connected TV platform market. Input 1 on the TV is the new homepage or start screen. We should expect that the battles will look incredibly similar to the market that emerged for smartphones over the past several years, but with some other entrenched players. Google vs. Apple vs. the dominant TV brands. In fact, these platforms will largely be based on a similar architecture, offering app and content publishers a common model for creating device-oriented applications and Web experiences.

Apple will ship an iOS-based Apple TV display and will open up Apple TV to third-party apps beyond Netflix. Developers will have a common model for building apps across the phone, tablet and TV, as well as a suite of new APIs for phone and tablet apps to interact with TV apps (think remote control type activities, gestures for games, etc.). Its platform will also support HTML5 with a set of design standards for TV Web 10-foot experiences.

Google, which has already put forward its first rendition of the same, will expand on this and create models that integrate Android apps across all devices.

In addition, the largest of the TV CE manufacturers (e.g. Samsung and LG), will put their best foot forward with TV App SDKs, App Stores and TV Web standards based on HTML5, looking to leverage their massive volumes and strong position in the living room to fend off Apple and Google from owning the consumer experience and app distribution relationships.

Expect by the end of the year a frenzy of publisher and developer interest in creating TV Apps and TV Web experiences as the volumes of products shipping by the end of 2011 will be in the tens of millions and very attractive as a target platform.

2. Over-The-Top TV Subscriptions will emerge, but largely fail

The long coveted idea of Over-The-Top (or OTT) TV distribution (through services such as Google TV, Apple TV, or Boxee), which would lead in turn to tens of millions of consumers “cutting the cord” with their cable provider will further take hold in 2011, but will largely disappoint consumers.

While library video on-demand subscriptions through services like Netflix, Xbox Live Marketplace, and Amazon VoD offer users great and broad libraries of content, they don’t yet offer a compelling substitute to a cable subscription.

In 2011, we’ll see the first wave of attempts to create more rich TV subscription bundles that are available over the Internet. Expect Netflix to start paying for more recent and popular TV shows, and for Apple to potentially offer a low-priced ($25/month) TV subscription product with a collection of recent hit TV shows. But most major broadcasters and studios won’t bite or participate in a meaningful way, leaving consumers still feeling like these products don’t offer enough. The absence of a broad offering of live sports will be a major factor keeping cords from being cut.

At the same time, your existing cable subscription will start to offer a greater range of content over the Web, and likely top-tier cable companies such as Comcast / Xfinity will make their online video products available through open devices and apps, blurring the lines even further.

We’ll have to wait until 2012 when the scale of Connected TV adoption is large enough that online TV subscription providers will be willing to write big enough checks to get the best available programming.

3. Facebook and Twitter will become larger sources of video traffic than Google search

In a recent jointly published study by Brighcove and TubeMogul, we reported that the fastest growing source of traffic to videos on publisher websites were social platforms Facebook and Twitter. This growth is accelerating and the role of these platforms as primary content discovery and viewing environments will reach a point by the end of the year that they will soon be as large and important as Google search.

Increasingly, online video publishers will treat Facebook.com as a Web publishing platform that is as important as their own Web domains. Facebook will welcome and embrace using its site as a media distribution end-point, offering rich tools and a business model that doesn’t require that it share in advertising revenue generated from impressions on its site. This will be highly attractive to publishers and we’ll see more and more VOD type applications launched concurrently on publisher sites and Facebook.com.

4. Video Ubiquity—Every Company is a Media Company

While a bit of a cliché, we’re seeing this happen at an accelerating pace. In 2011, if you are a professional institution, organization or business of any size, you will have an online video strategy. Video is becoming such a central part of how one communicates, markets, educates and informs online that every pro website will be publishing some form of online video.

It will first feel a lot like the brochureware era of the first generation Internet, with a lot of poorly-conceived and poorly-executed content. But a new era of Web video production businesses will emerge much as the Web development industry of the mid-90’s emerged, and organizations will start to iterate and experiment with how to best accomplish their online objectives using video.

5. Battle Over Video Delivery Standards Heats Up

Google’s recent announcement that they are acquiring Widevine adds fuel to what is already an important platform war over how video is consumed, secured and delivered both on PCs and increasingly on non-PC devices.

Several alternative stacks are emerging for encrypting / securing and then, in turn, delivering video in a high-quality and reliable manner to all platforms and devices. Apple offers Apple HTTP Streaming which both secures video and provides for adaptive delivery to both HTML5 and iOS Apps, but is proprietary to Apple’s devices and software.

Adobe offers its own DRM services and HTTP streaming standards, both of which are proprietary but are designed to work across client and device platforms that support the Flash runtime.

And now Google will get in the mix with Widevine’s technology, which also provides a method to encrypt and secure video files and deliver them to nearly any device or operating system using adaptive bitrate HTTP streaming. We should expect that, like with On2’s video codecs which were open-sourced as the WebM video standard, Google will open source and freely distribute the Widevine technology, as well as bundle it as a standard part of the infrastructure in Chrome, Chrome OS and Android browsers and operating systems.

It all adds up to more Web videos on more devices and points to a day when we won’t be able to tell the difference between the Web and TV.

Jeremy Allaire image

In 1995 Jeremy D. Allaire co-founded Allaire Corporation with his brother JJ Allaire, creating the web development tool ColdFusion. When Macromedia acquired Allaire in March 2001, Jeremy became Chief Technology Officer. At Macromedia, Jeremy helped… Learn More

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